
Richmond – As
the General Assembly
inches its way toward a
new session beginning
January 9, the search continues
for the issue that
will define the 2019 session.
It’s an annual
exercise at Mr. Jefferson’s
Capitol, but not one that
produces much fitness —
especially in election
years, when no lawmaker
wants to risk introducing
legislation that may end
up on an opponent’s television
ad. Making such a
prediction always comes
with the pitfall of getting
blindsided by an unnoticed,
seemingly innocuous
bill that gets elevated
beyond propriety.
Remember the "Droopy
Drawers Bill”?
The context of the
2019 session, however, is
unlike any recent circumstance,
or perhaps ever.
Not in the age of competitive
two parties in
Virginia, that is.
But with
Republicans holding oneseat
majorities in each
chamber after the
Democrats’ stunning 15
seat pick-up in the 2017
House elections, and the
commonwealth’s changing
demographics and
political bent, this could
be the last year of the
GOP’s two decades of
House control. It could
also be the beginning of
its turn in the wilderness
if a redistricting case in
federal court eventually is
resolved in a new map
that relegates the GOP to
not only a minority, but a
perpetual tiny minority.
That’s why the
tactics are likely to change
this session —
Republicans’ backs are
against the firing squad
wall, especially in the
House. What was unlikely
was that Governor Ralph
Northam, in large part
responsible for the
Democrats’ resurgence,
and who engineered the
gold plated legislative
dream of Virginia’s Left
last session — Medicaid
Expansion — gave the
desperate Republicans a
lifeline.
Last session,
House Republicans tried,
with no traction, to highlight
Democrat bills that
would have increased
taxes on any number of
purchases, actions and
income sources, including
an appeal to millennials, a
base Democrat constituency,
that a Democrat
caucus backed bill would
tax Netflix purchases.
But the astute
Northam uncharacteristically
took what should be
a technical issue and
exploded it into a controversial
one — a major
income tax increase to
fund new, colossal government
spending. Taxes
and spending just may be
the only issue remaining
on which Virginians trust
Republicans more than
Democrats.
The issue
revolves around the new
federal tax cuts and
reform law that knocked
Virginia’s tax code out of
synch with federal guidelines,
resulting in a $1.2
billion state tax increase
on individuals this year
and next if not fixed now,
and which will rise to $4.5
billion by 2024. Instead of
simply proposing a realignment
of the two tax
systems, Northam wants
to use the revenue windfall
to provide refunds to
those who don’t pay state
income taxes and massively
increase spending
during the current twoyear
budget, an unprecedented
and unpopular
rewriting of the budget in
midstream.
Two current
polls, by Christopher
Newport University and
Mason-Dixon Polling, will
inject fuel into Republican
tax reform and relief proposals
and, likely, propel
the issue to the top of the
session’s agenda. The
Mason-Dixon poll gauged
support for returning the
tax increase to taxpayers
by a 59-29 percent majority.
It also received majorities
and, in some cases,
super majorities in all
demographic and regional
breakdowns.
The real issue
may not be what the issue
is, but how far
Republicans take it. Will it
force an extended session
as did last year’s
Medicaid expansion?
Since members cannot
raise money while in session,
that brings up another
election year norm: End
session on time, go home
and campaign.